For a few days, I thought cooler heads would prevail, and we would vote to censure the President. That vote would likely have been supported by every Democrat in the House and a number of Republicans. It’s even possible a majority in both Houses would have joined. The President would have been very publicly and very appropriately denounced. This admonishment would have appeared non-partisan and measured. A majority of Americans would have agreed, and the President’s polling numbers would likely have ticked down in battleground states and with Independent voters, and our candidates for President serving in the Senate would have been able to stay on the campaign trail.
Instead of taking that significant win, this is likely what will happen now. Riding on the heels of the Justice Department Inspector General’s report detailing Obama Administration malfeasance in opening the Russia investigation into Trump in the first place, the vote to Impeach will be supported by all but a few Democrats, and every Republican will vote no. It is also possible we could lose up to 18 Democrats. Then, the control we’ve enjoyed in the House will end, and the Republicans will take control in the Senate trial. We will have a chance to present our case once again but with full cross-examination, and then the President and Republicans for the first time will have a chance to respond in full.
In their defense, we will hear from the “Whistleblower”, and his deep partisan bias will be revealed. Then Adam Schiff, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, will be forced to reveal at least some degree of collusion between his committee and the Whistleblower. We’ll hear from a lot of people, more-or-less, retelling things that have been in the media for months. Then at some point, it’s likely both Vice President Biden and his son, Hunter will be compelled to testify. You may think that relates to “debunked” charges, and you will be shocked by how bad it will look. We will hear from Rudy Giuliani, and what you thought you knew will be once again take on a very different appearance. Former National Security Adviser, John Bolton, will testify that while he didn’t like a lot of things that were going on, the call in question related directly to legitimate concerns over 2016 corruption. Finally, we will hear from Vice President, Pence; Secretary of State, Pompeo; and Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney. All will testify under oath that there was no quid pro quo, and that the heart of the investigation was about corruption in the 2016 Hillary Clinton Campaign.
If the Republicans do an average job in presenting the President’s case, he will be acquitted by 20 votes along very Partisan lines. If they do a really good job, it could be devastating for our Party and reach deeply into the 2020 elections.
In the aftermath of the Bill Clinton Impeached, a healthy majority of the American public felt the action had been partisan and unwarranted, and his approval rating went up. Congressman Jerry Nadler, currently our Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, said at the time, “There must never be a narrowly voted impeachment or else it would divide the country. Such an impeachment would lack legitimacy, would produce divisiveness and bitterness in our politics for years to come and will call into question the very legitimacy of our political institutions.”
His statement was right then, and it is right now.